Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 34.762954 41.259149 48.430468 56.906312 66.620741 77.376479 90.154921
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 25.842743 34.561418 45.162334 58.875419 76.006022 96.551467 122.892017
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.227135 31.112623 44.041493 61.913529 85.660215 115.778017 156.456460
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 17.975806 28.485811 43.100119 64.436204 94.232645 133.735464 189.303934
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.999068 25.553931 41.078645 64.886532 99.633314 147.514465 217.268918
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.138438 22.206234 37.845076 62.981830 101.221435 155.840451 238.008782
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.358201 20.212638 36.287325 63.218623 105.693783 168.262994 265.000611
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 9.057531 18.773049 35.354201 64.204552 111.209433 182.380450 295.106333
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.074787 15.741883 31.332992 59.663448 107.552326 182.329864 303.987917
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.359968 14.955660 31.058234 61.299162 113.851164 197.812016 337.141470
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 5.450308 13.609192 29.574310 60.625686 116.177526 207.075208 361.036607
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.240767 13.685396 30.750916 64.803942 127.023090 230.593685 408.607698
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 4.088793 11.567399 27.567121 60.954364 124.218822 232.673281 423.782716
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.667842 11.054799 27.577509 63.264218 132.784518 254.633933 473.382519
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.374205 10.784150 28.047955 66.516536 143.340256 280.671825 531.307895
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.072088 10.417337 28.241415 69.200579 153.009767 305.725761 588.907177
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.668335 9.668897 27.440332 69.679448 158.416023 323.480164 634.815102
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.189369 8.564247 25.599991 67.654732 158.632090 331.758740 664.452801
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.898558 7.943626 24.834065 67.906479 163.430927 348.724042 710.400420
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.682416 7.499693 24.441431 68.954573 169.936826 369.240970 763.773238
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.281221 6.275251 21.729553 64.125932 163.474724 364.437119 770.219544
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.160578 6.035597 21.707279 65.865579 171.421503 388.161443 831.088526
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.983949 5.511895 20.762538 65.149360 173.816168 400.968116 871.842556